Unless one of them has a health problem, I don't see it happening, and it's useless to speculate on such small odds.
They both won their primaries fair and square. McCain is a compromise candidate between the fiscal and the social conservatives; choosing someone else would alienate half their base and guarantee a loss.
On the other side, there is so much invested in Obama that it would rip apart the Democratic party if they got to the convention and somehow, some way, the delegates chose someone else. It would alienate younger and black voters for a full generation, and make us look like idiots.
In short: No.
The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.
President-Elect "That One"
Of course it could happen. In short, yes.
It's fully within the rights of each party to change its mind.
I'm eager to hear your thoughts on the percentage liklihood of this happening.
In extraordinary circumstances and only those. Otherwise it becomes a subversion of democracy and a huge flaw within the system, since polls are so easily gamed.
As the Obama backers were so eager to tell us during the primary season, the popular vote makes absolutely no difference in a nomination battle.
We were eager to point out that popular vote is not the metric, it is delegate count. Obama won the pledged delegates, he should win.
Is there a chance Obama might not get it? Of course! Is it likely to happen without drastic changes in the race, and I mean DRASTIC changes? Not at all. Obama would have to be trailing by 15 points before that became a valid point of contention.
So there IS a possibility, but pretending that it is currently a high one is foolish.
let it go.
The diarist in no way even mentioned Senator CLinton, he only asked if anybody thought it was possible that either candidate could still lose the nomination.
You're right. Why would anyone think that Clinton would be next in line for the nomination if Obama was RFK'd?
Oh, and your PUMA is showing. You might want to tuck it back in.
She's the most progressive and qualified candidate we have, much more qualified than the centrist moderate Obama.
HAD.
Oh, we still have her. And we love her.
OK, that tone makes it sound like you have a mannequin that you have dressed up as Hillary that you keep in your basement.
I have an alec baldwin mannequin in my basement.
In a rational universe, yes. This is a rational universe and thus I can conceive of the possibility, but by the same token, I could conceive of zombies. Unless McCain should suddenly fall ill (or Obama for that matter), it's unlikely. I do secretly wonder, though, if the Republicans are prepared to field another candidate if McCain should fall ill. Who would it be? Huckster?
Romney.
Theoretically, sure.
Theoretically, though, two meteors could fall at exactly the same time on the locations where they're campaigning.
However, if someone's paying out any less than 1,000,000-1 on John McCain or Barack Obama not being the nominee, don't take it.
Next question.
'Could' is the key word here. Could it happen? Sure. Theoretically, there are very few things that fall outside the realm of 'it could happen'.
However, 'will' is far more definitive. WILL it happen? Nope.
Come November we will be voting in a contest between Barack Obama (D) and John McCain (R).
I, for one, am voting for the one with the (D) next to his name. ;) Something tells me that the majority of my fellow Americans will be doing the same. I look forward to President Barack Obama. :)
I'm writing in Hillary or voting for an Indy.
If the polls show an insurmountable lead of Obama over McCain before the republicon convention, then I could see the GOP nominating a dark horse. Perhaps even Jeb Bush. I'll bet there's not a republicon who would object.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-rose nbaum/when-mccain-drops-out_b_107236.htm l
There's a dimension imaginable in which McCain, clearly getting trounced in every metric deep into September, drops out "for health reasons."
His VP choice (whoever that ends up being) steps in as the party nominee, and the media fixate on it throughout October. This VP might well be a lesser-known quantity with enough marketable qualities for the media to lap up. He offers vague palliatives and standard conservative bromides designed to both confuse and assure the base, while presenting a less-antiquated alternative to Obama.
Actually, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Tossing out a new, last-minute product and hoping it sells might be the Republicans' only chance this time. It's their Hail Mary, if it comes to that.
Obama, on the other hand, is our solid nominee, and will be the next president.
"might well be a lesser-known quantity with enough marketable qualities for the media to lap up. He offers vague palliatives and standard conservative bromides designed to both confuse and assure the base"
If you replace conservative with progressive it sounds like you're talking about Obama.
The Old Obama, I mean. Heck, even the Recent Obama. But not the New Obama. The New Obama is starting to get quite definitive. For instance:
1 Warrantless wiretapping immunity
2 NAFTA! hip hip hooray!
3 Out of Iraq? That was overheated and amplified rhetoric...we're going to 'rethink' Iraq.
4 Public Financing - show me the money!
Of course these are only a few of the more egregious examples.
Thanks for your views. By the bye, which candidate are you supporting in November?
As a progressive, I'm duty bound to vote for the only progressive I see in the field.
You do the math.
You seem determined to reduce the field to just John McCain. But perhaps you have other agendas.
I do not think McCain could lose his and the only way Obama loses his is if another Reverend Wright like Scandal emerges that he cannot cover with a speech.
Only a serious health issue or a Spitzer-sized scandal will stop it at this point.
