The myth/spin of "popular vote" (with poll!)

In the words of the Matrix:

"You must not try to win the "popular vote" you must only try to realize the truth: there is no "popular vote."

As the contest between our beloved Democratic contestants rages on, there are at least a few things we already know about the outcome:

1. Barack Obama will end with a large lead in (what I like to call) "seated delegates."

2. Neither candidate will get enough seated delegates to win outright.

3. Super-delegates will decide the election.

AND I humbly submit for your consideration a fourth factor, which I hope we can agree upon:

4. For the Democratic party to be successful in November, the outcome of the convention must be SEEN AS reflecting: "the will of the people."

For Obama this is a simple matter, he will claim the seated delegate count. For HRC, it will be slightly more difficult.

POPULAR VOTIN'

Which brings us to the "popular vote."

One way for HRC to claim legitimacy will be to claim victory in a peculiar little mathematical abstraction being called the "popular vote."

However, something else I hope we can agree on is this:

The current election, was not intended to render an accurate "popular vote" count, so using the "total votes" of the current election to to represent the "popular vote" is ridiculous and methodologically untenable.

A comparison which weighs open primaries against closed primaries against caucuses is pure nonsense and large states vs small and red states and blues states, is like adding apples and oranges to flag lapel pins and dry elbows.

It requires a common denominator.

The best common denominator, the one this election was built around and agreed to in advance, is the seated delegate count.

The proportional representation system which elected the "seated delegates"  was the agreed upon best method for determining the "popular vote" (will of the people) in the current election.

Whether or not you agree with that methodology is irrelevant. The only way to get a methodologically defensible "popular vote" other than the seated delegate count is to hold a "do-over" election.

In the extended, I'll explore different methods for determining the "popular vote" as well as the case for supers considering the "popular vote."

Here we are:

METHODS FOR DETERMINING THE "POPULAR VOTE."

1. Seated delegate count. This is only truly legitimate means of tabulating the "popular vote." The bizarre rules of the current election were agreed to as a compromise because it gives small states and strong democratic constituencies a fair voice and mitigates the impact of comparing caucuses to open primaries, the seated delegate count is the ONLY FAIR, ACCURATE AND METHODOLOGICALLY REASONABLE representation of the so-called "popular vote." This method gives a significant advantage to Barak Obama, as he can claim he's already won the popular vote using this method.

2. Adding apples and Oranges: raw vote tally or just count all the votes. While this is methodologically pure voodoo, we aren't in a math class, we're in politics, and we know where math and science get placed in the realm of politics: In the corner. With the dunce hat. What matters in politics is: will it appear valid to the public?
Potential positives:
--Allows HRC to stay in the race with the greatest chance of legitimacy.
Negatives:
--Could be seen as dishonest because of it's methodological invalidity.
--Disenfranchises small states. The current system of proportional representation is a compromise written right into our constitution. People in small states may feel disenfranchised.
--Disenfranchises Caucus states. If they had been given fair primaries, states with caucuses MIGHT have gone for HRC or they MIGHT have yielded bigger raw totals for Obama. Both camps will feel disenfranchised. Without a whole new election there is no valid way of determining this.
--Disenfranchises states with closed primaries. States with open primaries will receive a stronger say in this "popular vote."
--Disproportionately favors large states with open primaries.

3. PROPORTIONAL METHODS: any method that tries to determine the "popular vote" scaling the votes and weighing them proportionately.
3A. proportional by size of state: percentage of vote won multiplied by the total population (or total voting population or total registered democrats.) This would be slightly more fair that just counting the total raw votes as done above. However it's still pure voodoo. My feeling is that this method would benefit Obama as it would bolster the voices of his caucus states.

3B. Proportional by importance of state. Erm, this method would rate states on their "importance" in some way and then weigh their votes proportionally. For example, only counting large blue states and giving only half votes to caucus states or red states. Erm this part is pure balderdash but to me, it's about as valid as the rough vote tally number 2.

The place for the popular vote. OR Bush V Gore

"Surely," you exclaim, "the supers should consider the 'popular vote' in one form or another?"

Yes, in homogeneous elections where all the states play by the same rules, it is reasonable to assume that the total raw votes represents the "popular vote" and I think it should be taken into consideration. For example, in the presidential election. Or in other words, at the very least, I would expect a president who won the electoral college vote but lost the popular vote not to govern as though he had a "man date."

Well, we know how that worked out.

Then, WTF?

My point is this:

There's no even remotely valid way to determine the "popular vote" on the basis of the current election other than the seated delegate count. Barack Obama has already won the seated delegate count. HRC may still be able to win the majority of supers but her path to victory does not follow the road of wining the "popular vote."

disclosure: I voted for and am quite fond of Senator Obama because I see his job experience as better qualifying him that Senator Clinton's. However I think Senator Clinton is a super lady and would burn my breeches to vote for her in a heartbeat.


Poll
The "popular vote" is:
Whatever my candidate tells me it is!
The most important factor, erm, however you determine it...
Pure voodoo nonsense.
tasty with a little whipped cream on the side.

Votes: 3
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


My very first Mydd diary! (none / 0)

Very very first!


by luckymortal on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 05:15:10 PM EST

Re: The myth/spin of "popular vote" (none / 0)

The current election, was not intended to render an accurate "popular vote" count, so using the "total votes" of the current election to to represent the "popular vote" is ridiculous and methodologically untenable.

Quoted for truth.  This needs to be screamed from the mountaintops.

The Democratic Party's presidential nomination process is inherently, decidedly, and intentionally undemocratic.  That's because it's not an election for public office -- it is, rather, the selection of the best Democratic candidate.

Superdelegates? Undeomcratic.
Giving some districts more delegates than others based on Democratic Party turnout in 2004 and 2006? Undemocratic.
Holding a caucus and a primary in the same state and requiring people to vote in the primary if they want to vote in the caucus? Undemocratic.

The popular vote total is meaningless.  The only measure is delegates (both pledged and super).  This is fact, not spin.


John McCain the flip-flopper...
by chinapaulo on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 05:58:39 PM EST

Nice diary (none / 0)

I love it, and just wish everyone would read it with an open mind. The saddest part of the last couple months has been seeing so many Democrats close their minds. They are figuratively putting their fingers in their ears saying "nyah, nyah, nyah...I can't hear you" if it contradicts what they feel benefits their candidate.
This is what I have always believed the Republicans were for.
by independentvoter on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:01:47 PM EST

Doh! Fixed the Barack typo (none / 0)


by luckymortal on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:08:53 PM EST


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