Political blogger since 2001, I've worked for statewide and national campaigns.
http://claimid.com/jeromearmstrong

57, EVEN BETTER:
Republican Gordon Smith, who has represented Oregon in the U.S. Senate for the last 12 years, this morning called Jeff Merkley, his Democratric challenger, to concede their race.
Jon Isaacs, an aide to Merkley, said that Smith called Merkley about 8:40 a.m. to concede the hard-fought race, which came down to a few thousand votes. Isaacs described the conversation between the two men as "very cordial."
It came as Merkley prepared to give his acceptance speech this morning at Portland State University.
Merkley, a five-term state lawmaker and former Habitat for Humanity director, took advantage of a surge of Democratic support to win the bitterly fought battle with Smith, a Pendleton frozen food magnate who also rose through the Oregon Legislature.
Merkley was ahead through most of the counting Tuesday night, but then Smith overtook him overnight. By the end of counting Wednesday, Merkley had moved ahead with tallies from Democrat-rich Multnomah and Lane counties.
I feel like I did the day after the election in November 1992. A great weight has been lifted with the return of Democratic control.
In a few months: A President Obama, a Democratic Senate with at least 57 seats, and House with at least 258 Democrats.... a much better reality than the past 8 years.
At home, Warner won a huge blowout in Virginia, 64-34, and his coattails helped Obama win the state for a Democratic candidate the first time in 44 years. I wonder if Tim Kaine is going to be moving into the administration? That would bump up the current Lt. Gov Bolling, who is a bit of a conservative (to say the least) to the governorship. The interesting thing is that Attorney General Bob McDonnell is the likely Republican candidate for governor in 2009, as Bolling has said he's running for re-election. Hmm.
Really? We are at 56 Senate seats. That's it? Five is fine going into '08. I was thinking, like most, that 58 was the floor-- we really needed at least 58 Senate seats to make sure we have a working majority. Are there 4 Republicans in the Senate that will not work to block every progressive policy on the list? It looks like again, all of the close races, AK, MN, OR (still a lot of votes to count), and GA-R reaching 50, are going one way-- unfortunately the Republican way. Alaska? Well, the headwind, 62-36, McCain over Obama, was apparently too much for Democrats to defeat two corrupt Republicans. Nevertheless, Stevens is toast in the Senate. Replaced by Senator Palin in 2010?
I'll hopefully be able to look at the national House seats more later, some really great wins, and some tough losses. Republicans are down to just three CD's in the state of NY! We are over 250, which is plenty for a progressive agenda, maybe another 5 or so to be gained. Like the Senate, we are going to fall short of the high expectations, gaining somewhere around 20 seats. I love that Democrats won in Idaho, the 1st CD, by Minnick. When we were writing CTG and traveling around the country, Idahoans that we talked with were deep in the wilderness but had done all they could to learn about the Montana miracle. They gained leg seats in '06, and finally have won a federal race.
At the state leg level, Democrats won new majorities in the Delaware House, Ohio House, Wisconsin Assembly, New York Senate, and the Nevada Senate.
OK, I'll admit, I'm greedy for the progressive movement, and wanted more than just a pickup of 5 in the Senate and about 20 in the House.
I'll go ahead and predict that Obama wins in Florida. In 5 minutes he's going over 270.
North Carolina is trending away, toward McCain. Indiana is still to close.
Congratulations, President-elect Obama.
It looks like Shays will lose in CT 4th, he was the last remaining Republican in the New England NE states.
I'm watching MD 1st, and Kratovil is ahead by 300 votes with about 32% in, against a wingnut. This would be a sweet victory, with Rumsfeld & Cheney living in the CD.
In the NY 29th, Randy "shotgun" Kuhl is trailing the Democratic challenger Massa by 3K with about 44% reporting.
There we go, Ben Tribbett beats the networks.
Florida and North Carolina are next.
Also, Tom Perriello defeats Republican incumbent Virgil Goode in the 5th CD-- "They don't like gay porn in Charlotsville", TN
More Calls.
McCain: KS, ND, WY
Obama: NY, MI, MN, WI, RI, NM
To early to call: TX, AZ, CO, LA, NM, NE, SD
Update [2008-11-4 21:5:25 by Todd Beeton]:NC & VA are still too close to call.
Update [2008-11-4 21:16:41 by Jerome Armstrong]:
IN: 62% in and McCain is barely ahead by 1% and lots of votes to count in Lake County.
VA: 64% In and McCain is ahead by 1%
NC: 40% in and Obama is ahead by 4 percent.
FL: 50% in and Obama is ahead by 4 percent, this looks very good for Obama.
VA: It looks like Obama is going to do much better in certain counties that center around Richmond, but as expected, isn't doing as well in the SW part of the state.
IN: McCain is up by 5% with 42% reporting, but like the primary, the NW part of the state is slow in reporting, so the gap could close.
Alabama gets called for McCain. Georgia goes with McCain. Goodbye 400 (I'll take 300).
Florida: In the middle part of the state, both McCain and Obama are winning different counties.
The popular vote stands at 50-49, 6,723K to 6670K, Obama in the lead.
· AK SEN: AP CALLS IT FOR BEGICH! (Sandwich Repairman)
· Draft DavidNYC for Senate (Jonathan Singer)
· LA-04: Dick Ain't Done Yet ... (DailyKingFish)
· GA-Sen: Libertarian Allen Buckley Speaks Out on Georgia Senate Run-Off (Senate Guru)
· Wish Gov. Dean a "Happy Birthday" (Matt Ortega)
· IA-Gov 2010: Will any Democrat challenge Culver? (desmoinesdem)
· Young Dems use Facebook to slay cranky old Republicans (MediaCzech)
· OH-15: Debating Provisional Ballots (Sandwich Repairman)
· More 2010 Manuevers in Louisiana (DailyKingFish)
· MN-Gov / MN-01: Walz considers gubernatorial run (MN Campaign Report)
· NV-Sen: Republican Challenger for Harry Reid Emerges (Sven at My Silver State)
· Keith Ellison (D-MN) is up for Progressive Caucus chair (MN Campaign Report)